School Safety and Enrollment: What New Research Says Families Value
As public school enrollment continues to decline, school leaders are looking for ways to attract and retain families. New research highlights several factors that may influence parents' enrollment decisions.
Public school enrollment has declined by more than 1.2 million students since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and projections suggest those challenges will continue over the next decade. As families increasingly consider charter schools, private schools, homeschooling, and other educational options, many school districts are trying to better understand what influences families to enroll—and remain enrolled—in their schools.
A recent policy brief from Bellwether and WestEd argues that declining enrollment requires more than financial planning. The authors say states and districts must also strengthen public confidence in their schools through strategic communication, innovation, and long-term planning rather than relying solely on budget adjustments.
While academic quality remains an important consideration, a growing body of research suggests parents are also evaluating the overall school experience, including school climate, communication, student behavior, and whether their children feel safe and supported.
Public School Enrollment Pressures Continue
According to the latest National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data, public schools nationwide enrolled approximately 1.28 million fewer students in 2024 than before the pandemic, a decline of roughly 2.5%. While enrollment briefly stabilized in 2022 and 2023, 39 states experienced additional enrollment declines in 2024, suggesting any short-term recovery may have ended.
NCES projects public school enrollment will continue declining through 2032, driven by factors such as lower birth rates, changing demographics, and families increasingly exploring alternative options for education.
The Bellwether and WestEd authors warn that enrollment declines can create a "vicious cycle" in which declining enrollment contributes to reduced resources and eroding public confidence, which may encourage more families to leave.
What Families Value When Choosing Schools
While academic quality remains an important consideration, recent research suggests families also consider a broader set of factors when evaluating schools.
A recent white paper from Participate Learning examined North Carolina public schools participating in its Global Leaders initiative to better understand why some schools have experienced enrollment gains despite broader enrollment challenges. Drawing on existing research about family decision-making, the report notes that parents value safe and supportive learning environments, positive school climate, clear and transparent communication from school leaders, and strong community connections–in addition to strong academic and extracurricular opportunities.
The report also found that schools experiencing enrollment gains focused on strengthening school culture, building trust, and creating learning environments where students and families felt connected and supported rather than relying largely on marketing campaigns.
While the Participate Learning report highlights factors families consider when evaluating schools, a recent survey from Mesa Public Schools in Arizona examined why students who left the district enrolled elsewhere.
Why Students Left the District
Of the 1,647 high school students who left Mesa Public Schools during the 2024-2025 school year, approximately 150 responded to a follow-up survey conducted by WestEd. Among respondents, 31% said their families had moved away. Of those who cited other reasons for leaving, 29% pointed to school culture, 20% cited teaching quality, and another 20% identified bullying or student safety as factors influencing their decision.
Although the survey represents only a portion of departing students and may not reflect the experiences of all families who left the district, the findings suggest that school culture, student behavior, teaching quality, and perceptions of safety all contribute to how some students evaluate their educational experience.
What Families Want Schools to Improve
The Mesa survey also asked respondents what districts could do to better meet the needs of students and families. The most common recommendation was better communication and family support (21%), followed by greater support and oversight for teachers (17%) and stronger student behavior policies (14%).
The Bellwether and WestEd policy brief also recommends that states and districts engage in strategic communication to strengthen public confidence rather than allowing enrollment declines to be viewed primarily through the lens of budget cuts or school closures. The authors argue that transparent communication can help communities better understand enrollment trends, support difficult decisions, and maintain trust in local schools.
Recent research published in the Journal of School Violence, for example, found that providing balanced, evidence-based information about school safety measures increased public support for many security initiatives, highlighting the important role communication can play in helping families understand both the purpose and limitations of school safety efforts.
Examples include communicating proactively about behavioral threat assessment, bullying prevention, emergency preparedness, student behavior expectations, and other initiatives intended to strengthen school safety and school climate.
The Role of Student Behavior Policies
The Mesa survey also found that 14% of respondents recommended stronger student behavior policies, reflecting broader conversations taking place in schools and state legislatures about how districts should prevent and respond to concerning student behavior.
In recent months, states including Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina have enacted legislation addressing issues such as credible threats, assaults against school employees, disciplinary procedures, and coordination with law enforcement. Although the laws differ in scope, they reflect a broader effort to establish clearer expectations for preventing and responding to concerning student behavior.
At the district level, many schools are also continuing to expand the use of behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM) and early intervention strategies. Rather than relying solely on disciplinary consequences after an incident occurs, these approaches are designed to identify concerning behaviors early, assess potential risk, and connect students with appropriate supports before situations escalate.
Educators' Perspectives on School Safety
CENTEGIX's 2024 National Educator Survey also examined educators' perceptions of school safety and student success. Eighty-four percent of K-12 educators, school administrators, and district administrators said school safety directly impacts student achievement, while 83% said they believe students are concerned about their safety at school. The survey also found that 77% believe school safety significantly affects teacher recruitment and retention.
Although the survey focused on educator perceptions rather than enrollment decisions, it illustrates that many educators view school safety as closely connected to student achievement and workforce retention.